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The CEO’s guide to corporate finance

Four principles can help you make great financial decisions—even when the CFO’s not in the room.

corporate finance, CEO's guide article, value creation, corporate performance, financial engineering, core-of-value principle, expectations treadmill principle, conservation of value principle, best owner principle, cash flow, cash flows, securitization of assets, shareholder value, Strategy

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It’s one thing for a CFO to understand the technical methods of valuation—and for members of the finance organization to apply them to help line managers monitor and improve company performance. But it’s still more powerful when CEOs, board members, and other nonfinancial executives internalize the principles of value creation. Doing so allows them to make independent, courageous, and even unpopular business decisions in the face of myths and misconceptions about what creates value.

When an organization’s senior leaders have a strong financial compass, it’s easier for them to resist the siren songs of financial engineering, excessive leverage, and the idea (common during boom times) that somehow the established rules of economics no longer apply. Misconceptions like these—which can lead companies to make value-destroying decisions and slow down entire economies—take hold with surprising and disturbing ease.

What we hope to do in this article is show how four principles, or cornerstones, can help senior executives and board members make some of their most important decisions. The four cornerstones are disarmingly simple:

1. The core-of-value principle establishes that value creation is a function of returns on capital and growth, while highlighting some important subtleties associated with applying these concepts.

2. The conservation-of-value principle says that it doesn’t matter how you slice the financial pie with financial engineering, share repurchases, or acquisitions; only improving cash flows will create value.

3. The expectations treadmill principle explains how movements in a company’s share price reflect changes in the stock market’s expectations about performance, not just the company’s actual performance (in terms of growth and returns on invested capital). The higher those expectations, the better that company must perform just to keep up.

4. The best-owner principle states that no business has an inherent value in and of itself; it has a different value to different owners or potential owners—a value based on how they manage it and what strategy they pursue.

View these principles and their implications at a glance.

Ignoring these cornerstones can lead to poor decisions that erode the value of companies. Consider what happened during the run-up to the financial crisis that began in 2007. Participants in the securitized-mortgage market all assumed that securitizing risky home loans made them more valuable because it reduced the risk of the assets. But this notion violates the conservation-of-value rule. Securitization did not increase the aggregated cash flows of the home loans, so no value was created, and the initial risks remained. Securitizing the assets simply enabled the risks to be passed on to other owners: some investors, somewhere, had to be holding them.

Obvious as this seems in hindsight, a great many smart people missed it at the time. And the same thing happens every day in executive suites and board rooms as managers and company directors evaluate acquisitions, divestitures, projects, and executive compensation. As we’ll see, the four cornerstones of finance provide a perennially stable frame of reference for managerial decisions like these.

Mergers and acquisitions

Acquisitions are both an important source of growth for companies and an important element of a dynamic economy. Acquisitions that put companies in the hands of better owners or managers or that reduce excess capacity typically create substantial value both for the economy as a whole and for investors.

You can see this effect in the increased combined cash flows of the many companies involved in acquisitions. But although they create value overall, the distribution of that value tends to be lopsided, accruing primarily to the selling companies’ shareholders. In fact, most empirical research shows that just half of the acquiring companies create value for their own shareholders.

The conservation-of-value principle is an excellent reality check for executives who want to make sure their acquisitions create value for their shareholders. The principle reminds us that acquisitions create value when the cash flows of the combined companies are greater than they would otherwise have been. Some of that value will accrue to the acquirer’s shareholders if it doesn’t pay too much for the acquisition.

Exhibit 1 shows how this process works. Company A buys Company B for $1.3 billion—a transaction that includes a 30 percent premium over its market value. Company A expects to increase the value of Company B by 40 percent through various operating improvements, so the value of Company B to Company A is $1.4 billion. Subtracting the purchase price of $1.3 billion from $1.4 billion leaves $100 million of value creation for Company A’s shareholders.

In other words, when the stand-alone value of the target equals the market value, the acquirer creates value for its shareholders only when the value of improvements is greater than the premium paid. With this in mind, it’s easy to see why most of the value creation from acquisitions goes to the sellers’ shareholders: if a company pays a 30 percent premium, it must increase the target’s value by at least 30 percent to create any value.

While a 30 or 40 percent performance improvement sounds steep, that’s what acquirers often achieve. For example, Exhibit 2 highlights four large deals in the consumer products sector. Performance improvements typically exceeded 50 percent of the target’s value.

Our example also shows why it’s difficult for an acquirer to create a substantial amount of value from acquisitions. Let’s assume that Company A was worth about three times Company B at the time of the acquisition. Significant as such a deal would be, it’s likely to increase Company A’s value by only 3 percent—the $100 million of value creation depicted in Exhibit 1, divided by Company A’s value, $3 billion.

Finally, it’s worth noting that we have not mentioned an acquisition’s effect on earnings per share (EPS). Although this metric is often considered, no empirical link shows that expected EPS accretion or dilution is an important indicator of whether an acquisition will create or destroy value. Deals that strengthen near-term EPS and deals that dilute near-term EPS are equally likely to create or destroy value. Bankers and other finance professionals know all this, but as one told us recently, many nonetheless “use it as a simple way to communicate with boards of directors.” To avoid confusion during such communications, executives should remind themselves and their colleagues that EPS has nothing to say about which company is the best owner of specific corporate assets or about how merging two entities will change the cash flows they generate.

Divestitures

Executives are often concerned that divestitures will look like an admission of failure, make their company smaller, and reduce its stock market value. Yet the research shows that, on the contrary, the stock market consistently reacts positively to divestiture announcements.1 The divested business units also benefit. Research has shown that the profit margins of spun-off businesses tend to increase by one-third during the three years after the transactions are complete.2

These findings illustrate the benefit of continually applying the best-owner principle: the attractiveness of a business and its best owner will probably change over time. At different stages of an industry’s or company’s lifespan, resource decisions that once made economic sense can become problematic. For instance, the company that invented a groundbreaking innovation may not be best suited to exploit it. Similarly, as demand falls off in a mature industry, companies that have been in it a long time are likely to have excess capacity and therefore may no longer be the best owners.

A value-creating approach to divestitures can lead to the pruning of good and bad businesses at any stage of their life cycles. Clearly, divesting a good business is often not an intuitive choice and may be difficult for managers—even if that business would be better owned by another company. It therefore makes sense to enforce some discipline in active portfolio management. One way to do so is to hold regular review meetings specifically devoted to business exits, ensuring that the topic remains on the executive agenda and that each unit receives a date stamp, or estimated time of exit. This practice has the advantage of obliging executives to evaluate all businesses as the “sell-by date” approaches.

Executives and boards often worry that divestitures will reduce their company’s size and thus cut its value in the capital markets. There follows a misconception that the markets value larger companies more than smaller ones. But this notion holds only for very small firms, with some evidence that companies with a market capitalization of less than $500 million might have slightly higher costs of capital.3

Finally, executives shouldn’t worry that a divestiture will dilute EPS multiples. A company selling a business with a lower P/E ratio than that of its remaining businesses will see an overall reduction in earnings per share. But don’t forget that a divested underperforming unit’s lower growth and ROIC potential would have previously depressed the entire company’s P/E. With this unit gone, the company that remains will have a higher growth and ROIC potential—and will be valued at a correspondingly higher P/E ratio.4 As the core-of-value principle would predict, financial mechanics, on their own, do not create or destroy value. By the way, the math works out regardless of whether the proceeds from a sale are used to pay down debt or to repurchase shares. What matters for value is the business logic of the divestiture.

Project analysis and downside risks

Reviewing the financial attractiveness of project proposals is a common task for senior executives. The sophisticated tools used to support them—discounted cash flows, scenario analyses—often lull top management into a false sense of security. For example, one company we know analyzed projects by using advanced statistical techniques that always showed a zero probability of a project with negative net present value (NPV). The organization did not have the ability to discuss failure, only varying degrees of success.

Such an approach ignores the core-of-value principle’s laserlike focus on the future cash flows underlying returns on capital and growth, not just for a project but for the enterprise as a whole. Actively considering downside risks to future cash flows for both is a crucial subtlety of project analysis—and one that often isn’t undertaken.

For a moment, put yourself in the mind of an executive deciding whether to undertake a project with an upside of $80 million, a downside of –$20 million, and an expected value of $60 million. Generally accepted finance theory says that companies should take on all projects with a positive expected value, regardless of the upside-versus-downside risk.

But what if the downside would bankrupt the company? That might be the case for an electric-power utility considering the construction of a nuclear facility for $15 billion (a rough 2009 estimate for a facility with two reactors). Suppose there is an 80 percent chance the plant will be successfully constructed, brought in on time, and worth, net of investment costs, $13 billion. Suppose further that there is also a 20 percent chance that the utility company will fail to receive regulatory approval to start operating the new facility, which will then be worth –$15 billion. That means the net expected value of the facility is more than $7 billion—seemingly an attractive investment.5

The decision gets more complicated if the cash flow from the company’s existing plants will be insufficient to cover its existing debt plus the debt on the new plant if it fails. The economics of the nuclear plant will then spill over into the value of the rest of the company—which has $25 billion in existing debt and $25 billion in equity market capitalization. Failure will wipe out all the company’s equity, not just the $15 billion invested in the plant.

As this example makes clear, we can extend the core-of-value principle to say that a company should not take on a risk that will put its future cash flows in danger. In other words, don’t do anything that has large negative spillover effects on the rest of the company. This caveat should be enough to guide managers in the earlier example of a project with an $80 million upside, a –$20 million downside, and a $60 million expected value. If a $20 million loss would endanger the company as a whole, the managers should forgo the project. On the other hand, if the project doesn’t endanger the company, they should be willing to risk the $20 million loss for a far greater potential gain.

Executive compensation

Establishing performance-based compensation systems is a daunting task, both for board directors concerned with the CEO and the senior team and for human-resource leaders and other executives focused on, say, the top 500 managers. Although an entire industry has grown up around the compensation of executives, many companies continue to reward them for short-term total returns to shareholders (TRS). TRS, however, is driven more by movements in a company’s industry and in the broader market (or by stock market expectations) than by individual performance. For example, many executives who became wealthy from stock options during the 1980s and 1990s saw these gains wiped out in 2008. Yet the underlying causes of share price changes—such as falling interest rates in the earlier period and the financial crisis more recently—were frequently disconnected from anything managers did or didn’t do.

Using TRS as the basis of executive compensation reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the third cornerstone of finance: the expectations treadmill. If investors have low expectations for a company at the beginning of a period of stock market growth, it may be relatively easy for the company’s managers to beat them. But that also increases the expectations of new shareholders, so the company has to improve ever faster just to keep up and maintain its new stock price. At some point, it becomes difficult if not impossible for managers to deliver on these accelerating expectations without faltering, much as anyone would eventually stumble on a treadmill that kept getting faster.

This dynamic underscores why it’s difficult to use TRS as a performance-measurement tool: extraordinary managers may deliver only ordinary TRS because it is extremely difficult to keep beating ever-higher share price expectations. Conversely, if markets have low performance expectations for a company, its managers might find it easy to earn a high TRS, at least for a short time, by raising market expectations up to the level for its peers.

Instead, compensation programs should focus on growth, returns on capital, and TRS performance, relative to peers (an important point) rather than an absolute target. That approach would eliminate much of the TRS that is not driven by company-specific performance. Such a solution sounds simple but, until recently, was made impractical by accounting rules and, in some countries, tax policies. Prior to 2004, for example, companies using US generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) could avoid listing stock options as an expense on their income statements provided they met certain criteria, one of which was that the exercise price had to be fixed. To avoid taking an earnings hit, companies avoided compensation systems based on relative performance, which would have required more flexibility in structuring options.

Since 2004, a few companies have moved to share-based compensation systems tied to relative performance. GE, for one, granted its CEO a performance award based on the company’s TRS relative to the TRS of the S&P 500 index. We hope that more companies will follow this direction.

Applying the four cornerstones of finance sometimes means going against the crowd. It means accepting that there are no free lunches. It means relying on data, thoughtful analysis, and a deep understanding of the competitive dynamics of an industry. None of this is easy, but the payoff—the creation of value for a company’s stakeholders and for society at large—is enormous.


In a new book, Value: The Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance, McKinsey’s Richard Dobbs, Bill Huyett, and Tim Koller show the power of four disarmingly simple but often-ignored financial principles. Here are some practical applications.


About the Authors

Richard Dobbs is a director in McKinsey’s Seoul office and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute; Bill Huyett is a director in the Boston office; and Tim Koller is a principal in the New York office. This article has been excerpted from Value: The Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance, by Richard Dobbs, Bill Huyett, and Tim Koller (Wiley, November 2010). Koller is also a coauthor of Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, (fifth edition, Wiley, July 2010). To learn more about both books, please visit our information page on the McKinsey & Company Web site.

Notes

1 J. Mulherin and Audra Boone, “Comparing acquisitions and divestitures,” Journal of Corporate Finance, 2000, Volume 6, Number 2, pp. 117–39.

2 Patrick Cusatis, James Miles, and J. Woolridge, “Some new evidence that spinoffs create value,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 1994, Volume 7, Number 2, pp. 100–107.

3 See Robert S. McNish and Michael W. Palys, “Does scale matter to capital markets?” mckinseyquarterly.com, June, 2005.

4 Similarly, if a company sells a unit with a high P/E relative to its other units, the earnings per share (EPS) will increase but the P/E will decline proportionately.

5 The expected value is $7.4 billion, which represents the sum of 80 percent of $13 billion ($28 billion, the expected value of the plant, less the $15 billion investment) and 20 percent of –$15 billion ($0, less the $15 billion investment).

Recommend (105)
  • 15 DECEMBER 2010
    Olivier Lavergne
    International Services Engagement Manager
    HP
    France

    ...But, this should be more than a pure finance exercise. The seller will always have a case to divest a business as it is a cash injection opportunity at a premium on the market price....

    .
    Olivier Lavergne
    International Services Engagement Manager
    HP
    France

    Thanks for this thought provoking article. My key take-aways were the following:

    1/ When divesting a business, the one that wins at all times is the seller because of the premium that applied in the transaction. That premium is a pure bonus that goes directly into the value of the seller shareholders.

    2/ Creating value out of the acquired business becomes then a bet into the future given that value will be recognized only if it goes beyond the premium the buyer had to pay to acquire the business.

    3/ In exhibit 2, we see two examples where additional value was created as a result of an acquisition and two examples where value remains to be seen. Of course, there was value for the seller in the 2 cases.

    But, this should be more than a pure finance exercise. The seller will always have a case to divest a business as it is a cash injection opportunity at a premium on the market price. On the other hand, if the acquirer cannot achieve value beyond what he had to pay to acquire the divested business, then we have to look at the value gained on the seller side and the value missing on the acquirer side. If the net-net is not positive overall, then from a macro-economic standpoint, there was no value creation, just value erosion: The seller won, the buyer lost, the overall net net remains negative.

    So what is the ultimate goal from a Finance standpoint? Is it to generate value on one side or is it to generate additional value that goes straight on the market? We would all be better off with more value on the market.

    .
  • 20 NOVEMBER 2010
    Sudarshan Dujari
    MBA Student
    Indian School of Business
    Hyderabad, India

    For me, the takeaway from this article is the fact that while evaluating projects it is very important to consider the spill over effects the project might have on the company as a whole....

    .
    Sudarshan Dujari
    MBA Student
    Indian School of Business
    Hyderabad, India

    For me, the takeaway from this article is the fact that while evaluating projects it is very important to consider the spill over effects the project might have on the company as a whole. A positive expected value is often not a good criteria to evaluate projects, a 360-degree review on what repercussions the company might have to face on the project’s failure is imperative.

    .
  • 18 NOVEMBER 2010
    Serge Kuznetsov
    Lecturer
    Financial University
    Moscow, Russia

    There is a real danger that the core-of-value principle alone makes us more pessimistic about the possibility to gauge the contribution of important investments and activities to the market value of a company....

    .
    Serge Kuznetsov
    Lecturer
    Financial University
    Moscow, Russia

    There is a real danger that the core-of-value principle alone makes us more pessimistic about the possibility to gauge the contribution of important investments and activities to the market value of a company. How could we, within this principle, estimate the contribution of my favorite marketing assets such as brand equity, customer value, or strategic pipeline partnerships? The managerial problem of business value allocation is becoming more difficult to solve. The same is true for calculating ROMI, ROBRI, or ROHRI, that can differ from the general ROI, as the marketing budget is being prepared for the next period.

    Luckily, I agree that allocating value by means of allocating cash flows in the income approach methods can improve calculations of company’s value and performance in different spheres.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Tim Koller responds:

    Mr. Kuznetsov, Thank you for your comments. We didn’t intend to suggest that companies should not invest in building brand equity or related intangible assets. In fact, the highest value-creating companies over longer periods of time are the branded consumer-products companies who build loyal customers.

    And, I’ll add that just because measuring the return on capital (including marketing investments) is difficult, does not mean companies should ignore it.

    OUR REPLY
  • 18 NOVEMBER 2010
    Vassil Bliznakov
    CFO and VP
    Spectraseis
    Zurich, Switzerland

    The book itself is very interesting. Each chapter is structured in principles, empirical evidence, and practical implications for managers. It is often on the crossroads of finance and strategy....

    .
    Vassil Bliznakov
    CFO and VP
    Spectraseis
    Zurich, Switzerland

    The book itself is very interesting. Each chapter is structured in principles, empirical evidence, and practical implications for managers. It is often on the crossroads of finance and strategy. On the downside, the book is parsimonious on the estimation challenges of WACC, growth, and other input variables. Readers should continue their reading with Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. Thanks to McKinsey authors for the excellent finance books.

    .
  • 13 NOVEMBER 2010
    Mickey Huibregtsen
    President
    The Public Cause
    Amsterdam Netherlands

    ...with democracies in the developed countries virtually at the end of their ability to productively serve society, there is an important role to play for corporations in leading the way in their areas of expertise...

    .
    Mickey Huibregtsen
    President
    The Public Cause
    Amsterdam Netherlands

    The fallacy of presumed value creation in packaging sub primes was not in the lack of impact on underlying cashflows but the lack of impact on combined risk (see the outstanding book by Michael Lewis The Big Short)

    Also, In today’s world it is important to continously remind CEOs and the public at large that there is more to corporate value than shareholder value. It is clear that the old adagio of “exclusively focussing on shareholder value will serve all other societal ambitions best” does not hold anymore. Therefore it is upon influential writers like you to underscore this observation prior to offering all your valuable ideas. The dramatic performance by hundreds if not thousands of business leaders in the course of the financial crisis as so well documented in the above book should be an ongoing warning for all of us.

    Actually, with democracies in the developed countries virtually at the end of their ability to productively serve society, there is an important role to play for corporations in leading the way in their areas of expertise and market access to a better, more productive, and more responsive society. And ultimately this will be positive to the net present value of their future cash flows.

    Wishing you and your colleagues all the best in making this happen.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Tim Koller responds:

    Please see our July 2009 article, “Valuing social responsibility programs.”

    OUR REPLY
  • 11 NOVEMBER 2010
    JD Diabira
    Managing Partner
    Riskmont
    Ottawa, ON Canada

    ...one could envision cases where lenders for example would review loan files with an eye on the actual benefits generated by the loans, as opposed to granting loans solely on the basis of potential profitability or risk to the lender.......

    .
    JD Diabira
    Managing Partner
    Riskmont
    Ottawa, ON Canada

    Adding to the Canadian perspective given by Dwayne Mann below, I believe any value creation strategy ought to be put through rigorous risk analysis, beyond the revenue and cost risks.

    Pushed to the limits, one could envision cases where lenders for example would review loan files with an eye on the actual benefits generated by the loans, as opposed to granting loans solely on the basis of potential profitability or risk to the lender. I am referring for example to positive or negative cashflows that a loan would help generate for the borrower and the overall community, not just the ROA numbers for the bank/lender.

    This would be a much more comprehensive take on value creation, but it would also be a more realistic take on the potential for creation or destruction of value. And it’s a good thing that some lenders in Canada have embraced the approach. Let’s hope it spreads beyond banking.

    .
  • 11 NOVEMBER 2010
    Miss Oluwasola Olaniyan
    Asset & Resource Management Company
    Lagos, Nigeria

    The ‘best-owner’ concept (the 4th cornerstone) is, by far, my favourite part of this article....

    .
    Miss Oluwasola Olaniyan
    Asset & Resource Management Company
    Lagos, Nigeria

    The ‘best-owner’ concept (the 4th cornerstone) is, by far, my favourite part of this article. The (potential) value of any organisation depends largely on the the owner or potential owner of the organisation; ‘owner’ not necessarily referring to the majority shareholder or the CEO, but to every ‘S’ (strategy, structure, systems, skills, staff, shared values, and style) that makes up that organisation. The importance of these components really cannot be overemphasised as it is by their synthesis that any organisation will attain (or not attain) its full potential.

    .
  • 10 NOVEMBER 2010
    Dwayne Mann
    SVP Credit
    ATB Financial
    Calgary, AB Canada

    I support your view that all entities need to create value. The issue I have is that I think your view from just the shareholder’s perspective might be limiting and what drove many of the follies of the past few...

    .
    Dwayne Mann
    SVP Credit
    ATB Financial
    Calgary, AB Canada

    I support your view that all entities need to create value. The issue I have is that I think your view from just the shareholder’s perspective might be limiting and what drove many of the follies of the past few years. I agree that value creation is a function of improving return on capital and growing revenues, but would insist these measures need to be done on a risk-adjusted basis. Without this being front and center, we may find ourselves in the next upturn all competing hard to create value, becoming blind to the risks we are taking, and hence sowing the seeds for the next crash or crisis. Management and boards need to cleary understand where and why they want to grow and be strong enough to fend off opporutnities with the promise of short-term results if fraught with future risks.

    Secondly, do corporations not have a secondary purpose outside of maximizing shareholder returns—that of being a socially responsible entiity? We are seeing this manifest itself in new legislation and consumer protection, as well as in ground swell against things like executive compensation. Maybe having a focus on long-term, risk-adjusted value creation would be a better measure of valuable entities.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Tim Koller responds:

    Dwayne, Most non-financial companies did not take large risks before the crisis. Risk-taking was mostly in the finance and real estate sectors as well as by consumers and governments. That’s why few large, non-financial companies experienced financial distress during the crisis. We might go so far as to argue that many large, non-financial companies are focused too much on short-term profits and are not taking enough of the kinds of risks that could generate long-term value creation. History suggests that this crisis was similar to other crises, in that it developed in the finance and real estate sectors.

    OUR REPLY
  • 10 NOVEMBER 2010
    Kunal Kishore
    Faculty
    IMS learning solutions
    Dhanbad, India

    ...Value added with new product innovation and process innovation is a difficult but achievable reality. It’s the most painful process for the leaders to search and find potential people and create new leaders....

    .
    Kunal Kishore
    Faculty
    IMS learning solutions
    Dhanbad, India

    Well, if we follow 50 leaders will will have 50 different styles of leadership. It’s a great reality, but what’s more important is that they all would be competent at an individual level and working in a team. Even the best part is the humility that they carry. If a leader has all these three traits in his professional life, he as well as the organisation will not only survive but also will the best example. The same thing also applies to corporate finance. Value added with new product innovation and process innovation is a difficult but achievable reality. It’s the most painful process for the leaders to search and find potential people and create new leaders. And this requires great humility.

    .
  • 9 NOVEMBER 2010
    Guillermo Iturriaga
    Consultant
    Financiera Fast S.A
    Peru

    There is always a latent risk in all new projects; However, the company should consider that incursion into new projects can be beneficial by attracting new investors interested in it....

    .
    Guillermo Iturriaga
    Consultant
    Financiera Fast S.A
    Peru

    There is always a latent risk in all new projects; However, the company should consider that incursion into new projects can be beneficial by attracting new investors interested in it. In other words, expanding the portfolio of investments of the company with new projects can generate fresh capital.

    .
  • 9 NOVEMBER 2010
    Denis Thiercelin
    Project Auditor
    ALSTOM
    Paris France

    I have the feeling that the paragraph “Divestitures” could benefit from the reminder that a clear, specific plan to use the fund payment (or the shares received as a payment) is mandatory....

    .
    Denis Thiercelin
    Project Auditor
    ALSTOM
    Paris France

    I have the feeling that the paragraph “Divestitures” could benefit from the reminder that a clear, specific plan to use the fund payment (or the shares received as a payment) is mandatory. We have indeed the impression that as soon as the best ownership is identified as external to the company, it makes sense to sell. My point is that given the murky future of financial markets, investing the proceeds of the settlement can be challenging, even for six months. One way is maybe to include this lack of investment opportunity in the premium to be paid. Without too much development, I would have mentioned the need of a specific strategy of reinvestment, not limited to buy back shares (difficult in case of major investiture) or pay debts (might be cheap debt versus opportunity of investment).

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Tim Koller responds:

    M. Thiercelin, Thank you for your thoughtful comments. Though our experience is that, in most cases, companies would do better to sell soon rather than later even if they simply hold on to the cash for a year or more. That’s because the value of the business they should sell typically declines in value.

    OUR REPLY
  • 9 NOVEMBER 2010
    Adriaan Kukler
    Owner
    KAO
    Amsterdam Netherlands

    ...Shouldn’t this be valid for multiple sorts of risks, financial market risks, for example? If I have better information, provide more energy in signalling developments...

    .
    Adriaan Kukler
    Owner
    KAO
    Amsterdam Netherlands

    Finally we find the notion of subjective risk with a mainstream author, i.e., in the best-owner principle which says that value depends on the owner.

    Shouldn’t this be valid for multiple sorts of risks, financial market risks, for example? If I have better information, provide more energy in signalling developments, am pro-active in developing management perspectives for various scenarios, and monitoring my positions, then I would be able to manage the so-called objective risks in financial markets instruments better than if I did not do these things.

    But if these risks are not solely objective, how does that influence our pricing (based on risk-free assets and on arbitrage pricing theory assuming risk neutrality, which can only hold if the risks are objective)?

    My guess is that the implications of recognising the subjectivity in risks stretch far beyond the value of a firm in a take-over scenario. It would be nice to read about these extensive implications.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Tim Koller responds:

    Adriaan, In theory, you are correct. However, we find that few, if any, non-financial companies are equipped to out-forecast or out-manage macro risks (risks such as exchange rates, interest rates, or commodity prices). In most cases, managers should devote their energy to managing their businesses, using a conservative capital structure to ensure that macro risks don’t cause financial distress.

    OUR REPLY
  • 9 NOVEMBER 2010
    David Ivan Wangolo
    Analyst
    ReNaissance Capital Limited
    Uganda

    ...At what acceptable time horizon should management admit failure of new investments to lead to growth comensurate with the undertaking? Probably this is the question management needs to answer...

    .
    David Ivan Wangolo
    Analyst
    ReNaissance Capital Limited
    Uganda

    The ideas in this read are extremely powerful. What resonates most is probably the argument of cashflows being a key driver of value—but in certain cases businesses make huge investments in the hope/belief that revenues/cashflows can only grow with these investments. The reality is that growth and ROIC are immediately depressed. At what acceptable time horizon should management admit failure of new investments to lead to growth comensurate with the undertaking? Probably this is the question management needs to answer without placing too distant a horizon on success in the event of short-term distress.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Tim Koller responds:

    Mr. Wangolo, Thanks for your question. The timeframe to admit failure varies considerably by industry. The best companies take a stage-gate approach, reevaluating projects every 3 to 12 months (depending on the industry) to decide whether to continue funding, on the best information available at the time. The horizon for tech projects may be 1 to 3 years, while for pharma, it may be a decade.

    OUR REPLY
  • 8 NOVEMBER 2010
    Mark Reading
    Partner
    PwC
    Sydney, Australia

    ...In my experience (primarily Australia for the last decade or so), very few companies use absolute TSR in structuring long-term incentive plans. When TSR is used, it is almost always a relative measure....

    .
    Mark Reading
    Partner
    PwC
    Sydney, Australia

    The article provides a good, high-level summary of corporate finance for non-financial people. Sound, basic principles of finance will always be good advice.

    In my experience (primarily Australia for the last decade or so), very few companies use absolute TSR in structuring long-term incentive plans. When TSR is used, it is almost always a relative measure.

    Even relative TSR suffers from some of the deficiencies outlined in your article (e.g. it’s very difficult to remain in the top quartile for an extended period of time), however it does align the interests of shareholders and management quite well.

    Many companies combine relative TSR with EPS hurdles. This is quite a good blend.

    What I am yet to see is many companies structuring LTIPs using ROIC hurdles—a pity, really when you consider the importance of ROIC in sustainable value creation.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Tim Koller responds:

    Some companies have started to include a measure of return on capital in their compensation systems, but they are still a minority.

    OUR REPLY
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