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The new value at stake in regulation

Escalating value at risk from government regulation clearly has a place on the agendas of most CEOs.

The expanding role of goverments in the marketplace has become a hot topic in many executive suites around the world. But how much value is actually at stake from state intervention in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008? The answer, according to our analysis, is close to $800 billion a year of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) worldwide—on top of around $2.8 trillion on the table before the crisis.

Regulation’s impact varies by industry: half of the new value at stake is in banking and insurance, 15 percent in the automotive industry, and the remaining 35 percent scattered among other sectors. In banking and insurance, the crisis has added close to $400 billion to the industry EBITDA affected by government intervention and regulation, for a total of $970 billion (exhibit). This means that two-thirds of the sector’s profits are now at stake.

The huge regulatory impact of the crisis in just a few sectors doesn’t mean that executives in other ones can relax. Telcos, transport and logistics companies, energy providers, retailers, pharma companies, and health care providers have long been subject to extensive government intervention. These industries continue to represent most of the regulatory value at stake around the world. Indeed, with a total of some $3.6 trillion a year on the table, an effective strategy for engaging government clearly has a place on the agendas of most CEOs.

About the Authors

Robin Nuttall is a principal in McKinsey’s London office, and Sergio Sandoval is a consultant in the Brussels office.

Recommend (5)
  • 2 FEBRUARY 2010
    Dr. Anand PB
    University of Bradford
    UK

    ...instead of showing additional value at stake on Y axis, the chart would be more useful if it showed total value at stake after 2009 reforms....

    .
    Dr. Anand PB
    University of Bradford
    UK

    An interesting piece. Only comment is that instead of showing additional value at stake on Y axis, the chart would be more useful if it showed total value at stake after 2009 reforms. Crisis necessarily forces governments to tighten regulatory mechanisms. It would be interesting to highlight why the increases in regulation are different in various sectors; whether countries differ in the extent of increase in regulation or whether this is a global phenomenon; also to what extent are regulations in other sectors tracking increased regulatory burden in financial and investment aspects of firms in the various sectors (say, a telecom firm).

    .
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