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Enduring Ideas: The three horizons of growth

In this interactive presentation—one in a series of multimedia frameworks—Steve Coley, a director emeritus in McKinsey’s Chicago office, describes the three horizons framework. Based on research into how companies sustain growth, this approach illustrates how to manage for current performance while maximizing future opportunities for growth.

As companies mature, they often face declining growth as innovation gives way to inertia. In order to achieve consistent levels of growth throughout their corporate lifetimes, companies must attend to existing businesses while still considering areas they can grow in the future. The three horizons framework—featured in The Alchemy of Growth,1 —provides a structure for companies to assess potential opportunities for growth without neglecting performance in the present.

Horizon one represents those core businesses most readily identified with the company name and those that provide the greatest profits and cash flow. Here the focus is on improving performance to maximize the remaining value. Horizon two encompasses emerging opportunities, including rising entrepreneurial ventures likely to generate substantial profits in the future but that could require considerable investment. Horizon three contains ideas for profitable growth down the road—for instance, small ventures such as research projects, pilot programs, or minority stakes in new businesses.

Time, as noted on the x-axis, should not be interpreted as a prompt for when to pay attention—now, later, or much later. Companies must manage businesses along all three horizons concurrently. Rather, it suggests the cycle by which businesses and ventures move, over time, from horizon two to horizon one, or from horizon three to horizon two. The y-axis represents the growth in value that companies may achieve by attending to all three horizons simultaneously.


Launch the interactive, or download the audio file.


Enduring ideas: The three horizons of growth
The three horizons framework offers a way to concurrently manage both current and future opportunities for growth.

The framework continues to be useful, especially in uncertain times. The immediacy of concerns around horizon-one businesses can easily overwhelm other efforts important to the future of a company. C-suite leaders can use the three horizons model as a blueprint for balancing attention to and investments in both current performance and opportunities for growth.

Notes

1 Mehrdad Baghai, Stephen Coley, and David White, The Alchemy of Growth, New York: Perseus Publishing, 1999.

Recommend (205)
  • 6 APRIL 2010
    Vinaya Pandey
    Tata Steel Ltd.
    Jamshedpur, India

    The framework is a good analytical tool for corporate planners and strategic thinkers/ implementers. A caveat: a company must earn the right to grow before it embarks on an ambitious growth trajectory.

    .
    Vinaya Pandey
    Tata Steel Ltd.
    Jamshedpur, India

    The framework is a good analytical tool for corporate planners and strategic thinkers/ implementers. A caveat: a company must earn the right to grow before it embarks on an ambitious growth trajectory.

    .
  • 24 MARCH 2010
    Hank Frankenberg
    Sourcing Manager
    3M
    Austin, TX USA

    I completely agree with Mr. Alter that very different skills and types of personnel are needed to address the three horizons....

    .
    Hank Frankenberg
    Sourcing Manager
    3M
    Austin, TX USA

    I completely agree with Mr. Alter that very different skills and types of personnel are needed to address the three horizons. Some managers are great at solving a customer or internal problem near term, but have no vision whatsoever. Some are visionary but can’t move fast and pragmatically to gather the facts and put a solution in place to solve an immediate issue.

    .
  • 6 JANUARY 2010
    Charlie Alter
    Principal
    Bentbrook Advisors LLC
    Toledo, OH USA

    ...The big lesson needs to be that different skills and types or people are needed in each horizon....

    .
    Charlie Alter
    Principal
    Bentbrook Advisors LLC
    Toledo, OH USA

    Many thanks for the reminder that profitable growth is a continuous process. The three horizons describe quite well how new ideas can become emerging opportunities which may ultimately become part of the core business, while other businesses drop away. The big lesson needs to be that different skills and types or people are needed in each horizon. Great interactive video/audio as well.

    .
  • 24 DECEMBER 2009
    Sham Sharma
    Visiting Professor
    Consultant
    Meerut, Uttar Pradesh, India

    The three horizons recommendation (to concentrate on all three for growth in value) appears simplistic...

    .
    Sham Sharma
    Visiting Professor
    Consultant
    Meerut, Uttar Pradesh, India

    The three horizons recommendation (to concentrate on all three for growth in value) appears simplistic in the scenario of the order books of the firm being virtually empty, the price of raw material through the roof, labor in a non-negotiating mood, cash flows negative, interest rates at an all time high, and government in no position to pull the firm / industry out of the mess.

    .
  • 23 DECEMBER 2009
    David Russo
    self
    Nashua, NH USA

    Beautiful presentation on an old theme, managers don’t understand their average time to complete a task for their levels and thus focus on the wrong areas...

    .
    David Russo
    self
    Nashua, NH USA

    Beautiful presentation on an old theme, managers don’t understand their average time to complete a task for their levels and thus focus on the wrong areas, either too short or long intervals (Horizon 1 & 3). Depending on the size of the organization, it may not be appropriate for CEO to focus on Horizon 2, but the middle managers who should are being forced to pay too much attention to Horizon 1 activities. It is the MBA (my bias) or Wall Street cycle of death for a company: maximize near term, develop the ‘killer’ app, who cares about the rest? Repetitive process/product/service improvements (Horizon 2) are not ‘sexy’ for investor buzz. They are however, the life blood of improving Horizon 1 performance and maturing Horizon 3 opportunities. Excellent graphics, thank you.

    .
  • 23 DECEMBER 2009
    Shweta Mishra
    Research Associate
    Infoanalytica
    India

    The idea emphasized is pretty good but stepping to the companies level, I think most companies fail even to find out the major innovation area....

    .
    Shweta Mishra
    Research Associate
    Infoanalytica
    India

    The idea emphasized is pretty good but stepping to the companies level, I think most companies fail even to find out the major innovation area. Considering the basics of strategic management, I have seen companies failing to address even cost terminals. In current scenario, we can find many companies in “stuck - up” in the middle kind of situations.

    .
  • 22 DECEMBER 2009
    Jim Rait
    innovation process manager
    Retired
    Knutsford Cheshire, UK

    The beauty of 3 horizons thinking is that we can operate at a departmental or group level, too. We can look at how we do work worth asking for; earning a place at the table to help expand beyond tasks......

    .
    Jim Rait
    innovation process manager
    Retired
    Knutsford Cheshire, UK

    The beauty of 3 horizons thinking is that we can operate at a departmental or group level, too. We can look at how we do work worth asking for; earning a place at the table to help expand beyond tasks, and where we go to make ourselves indespensable as the organisation’s total strategy evolves. We can anticipate strategy development and be ready to survive into the future. It really works!

    .
  • 22 DECEMBER 2009
    Thomas Doorley
    CEO
    Sage Partners, LLC
    Boston, MA USA

    A very useful framework. One caveat—it seems to imply a discontinuity across the horizons....

    .
    Thomas Doorley
    CEO
    Sage Partners, LLC
    Boston, MA USA

    A very useful framework. One caveat—it seems to imply a discontinuity across the horizons. The Technology company example describes the Horizon Three as experimental and far away from the core. I believe the framework has great value in understanding how to build out from embedded competencies. For example see Apple’s rebirth as Jobs returned and first fixed Horizon One (the MacBook), then took the momentum and design skill into Horizon Two (iPod) and finally to Horizon Three (iPhone). The comments about requiring sharply different performance metrics and leadership styles are on target, as is the need for strong senior management attention and support for Horizons Two & Three.

    .
  • 22 DECEMBER 2009
    Richard Skinner
    consultant
    retired
    Washington DC USA

    It’s refreshing to see a major consulting firm speaking to the issue of executives tending to distant horizons and not only annual budgets....

    .
    Richard Skinner
    consultant
    retired
    Washington DC USA

    It’s refreshing to see a major consulting firm speaking to the issue of executives tending to distant horizons and not only annual budgets. The diagram corresponds, to my eye, to what has propelled Apple under Steve Jobs and colleagues: sticking to core business principles “cemented” by a few corporate-wise values (e.g., design aesthetics) but also capitalizing on the digital content explosion while exploring more distant projects of, for example, virtual realities and simulations that rely on high-quality digital content. By contrast, the past few years have witnessed many organizations’ leadership myopically focused on this year’s returns while engaging in dalliances on the third horizon that lack any real continuity with what is going on now and in the next 2-3 years.

    .
  • 22 DECEMBER 2009
    Karan Abrol
    Associate Consultant
    Nihilent Tech
    India

    ...fortunately in developing economies companies have demand and they are able to manage business from Horizon 2 in the long run automatically without giving a thought to it. It happens by accident and not choice.

    .
    Karan Abrol
    Associate Consultant
    Nihilent Tech
    India

    I appreciate your study and presentation on the subject. I agree without a question that business mangers today are spending their time on cashing Horizon 1 and investing on horizon 3 but what they miss is Horizon 2 which is actually their bread and butter and they really don’t think on this horizon. It is a different thing that fortunately in developing economies companies have demand and they are able to manage business from Horizon 2 in the long run automatically without giving a thought to it. It happens by accident and not choice.

    .
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