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A regulatory squeeze on Europe’s banks?

Proposed Basel III rules may protect the system, but at a severe cost to returns on equity and lending capacity.

Most bankers would agree that the financial crisis has highlighted major shortcomings in the regulatory framework governing minimum bank capital and liquidity. New standards for regulatory capital and liquidity,1 now under discussion at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, will likely establish the rules for European banks at least over the next decade and set the tone for local regulation in other parts of the world. Not surprisingly, bankers have dubbed the new rules “Basel III.”

Basel III could significantly change the composition of banks’ Tier 1 capital; risk weights, especially in trading books; and capital ratios. New McKinsey research estimates that the effect of these new rules on Europe’s banks would be a capital shortfall of about €700 billion. This sum would represent a 40 percent increase in the European banking system’s core Tier 1 capital.

What’s more, Basel III’s proposed new standards for liquidity and funding management would constrain funding severely. We estimate that European banks may be required to hold an additional €2 trillion in highly liquid assets and to raise €3.5 trillion to €5.5 trillion in additional long-term funds. At present, European banks have only about €10 trillion in long-term unsecured debt outstanding.

In the absence of any mitigating action, the new costs for additional capital and funding could lower the industry’s return on equity (ROE) in 2012 by five percentage points, or one-third of the industry’s long-term-average 15 percent ROE (exhibit). Basel III may also have some unintended consequences, such as impairing the interbank-lending market and reducing lending capacity.

It is likely that the final Basel III rules will be softened in several areas. Nonetheless, an examination of the range of proposals indicates that the final accord’s impact on banks will be substantial across a range of activities.

Download the full report, Basel III: What the draft proposals might mean for European banking, at the McKinsey & Company Web site.

About the Authors

Philipp Härle and Thomas Poppensieker are directors in McKinsey’s Munich office; Sonja Pfetsch is an associate principal in the Düsseldorf office.


The authors wish to acknowledge the contributions of Matthias Heuser to the development of this article.

Notes

1 “Strengthening the resilience of the banking sector” and “International framework for liquidity risk measurement, standards, and monitoring,” www.bis.org.

Recommend (11)
  • 4 FEBRUARY 2011
    Nihat Gumus
    PhD Candiate
    Bogazici University
    Istanbul, Turkey

    ...In addition, any regulatory attempt in EU without simultaneous and synchronized changes in US regulatory structure will not lead to desired stability objectives....

    .
    Nihat Gumus
    PhD Candiate
    Bogazici University
    Istanbul, Turkey

    It is a matter of fact that regulation in Europe is overly conduct-of-business oriented. Therefore, to me as well, regulations related to required capital is a must, especially in UK.

    However, what should be emphasized are the regulations that should be directed to pillar II of Basel II, namely the internal control processses and overreliance of CRAs, i.e. regulations related to the asset management sides of BSs.

    In addition, any regulatory attempt in EU without simultaneous and synchronized changes in US regulatory structure will not lead to desired stability objectives.

    Finally, as long as the so-called developed countries lack the political leadership both on international arena (that can be easily seen observing G20 summits and recent crisis in the EU) and in their national markets such regulations, cannot be put into action.

    .
  • 19 AUGUST 2010
    Bilal Hoosen
    Portfolio Credit Risk Manager
    Standard Bank
    South Africa

    ...Banks in developed countries should look to their counterparts in emerging markets as examples.

    .
    Bilal Hoosen
    Portfolio Credit Risk Manager
    Standard Bank
    South Africa

    Although the effect on Europe’s banks is significant, the implementation of Basel 3 is necessary to mitigate risk. I do agree that it will reduce liquidity once it is implemented. However, to limit any further impact of the recent recession and to prevent a similar event in the future, investors will have to settle for a lower return, for now. If management of these banks had been more responsible in the manner they operated their businesses the recession would not have been as severe and new capital adequacy requirements may not have been necessary. Banks in developed countries should look to their counterparts in emerging markets as examples.

    .
  • 13 AUGUST 2010
    Abhishek Roy
    Risk Strategy
    Standard Chartered Bank
    Mumbai, India

    Such an adverse impact on ROE might tempt banks to focus on high return product segments for survival and growth, and in-turn increasing the portfolio risks. It’s a vicious cycle...

    .
    Abhishek Roy
    Risk Strategy
    Standard Chartered Bank
    Mumbai, India

    Such an adverse impact on ROE might tempt banks to focus on high return product segments for survival and growth, and in-turn increasing the portfolio risks. It’s a vicious cycle and the right levels of checks and controls cannot be aped for all markets. Basel III might be difficult to the extent of being unfair on banks based out of Europe but with primary operations in developing economies.

    .
  • 15 JULY 2010
    Dr G. Mountis
    Analyst
    Bank of Cyprus
    Cyprus

    Some EU banks do not want to be fully accountable for the capital requirements of subsidiaries, when other shareholders have a large minority stake. Yet, they should be...

    .
    Dr G. Mountis
    Analyst
    Bank of Cyprus
    Cyprus

    Some EU banks do not want to be fully accountable for the capital requirements of subsidiaries, when other shareholders have a large minority stake. Yet, they should be, since when push comes to shove the majority shareholder is ultimately going to be liable for losses at the subsidiary.

    The point of Basel III is that it’s meant to be robust and in a way ‘forceful’; these new rules are turning Basel III very complex and difficult to interpret and apply.

    .
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