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Why Europe lags behind the United States in productivity

Regulation and market barriers continue to hold back the continent’s service sectors.

Europe productivity article, service sector prouductivity, Economic Studies

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Europe has made considerable economic progress in the past 15 years, but its per capita GDP is still $11,250 lower than that of the United States—$4.5 trillion in all. A preference for leisure time is one reason, but a widening productivity gap between Europe and the United States is the major culprit. What accounts for it? The answer is underperforming service sectors. Local services (such as retailing) alone account for two-thirds of the productivity shortfall. But Europe, boasting examples of best practice across service sectors, could reduce the gap. The trick would be for companies to emulate these examples in their own industries and for governments to help them do so by removing regulatory hurdles.1

The opportunity to improve Europe’s lagging service sectors is one of the major themes addressed in Beyond austerity: A path to economic growth and renewal in Europe, a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).2 The report analyzes Europe’s strides in reforming labor markets, cutting unemployment, and fueling growth in per capita GDP; the many pressures bearing down on growth; and how to build an effective pro-growth agenda using recent reforms as a platform. Given high debt and deficit levels, little scope remains to spur growth through short-term stimulus spending. Europe must therefore embrace structural reform—and boosting the performance of service industries is a critical part of this effort.

In Europe, service sectors account for a lower share of overall economic activity than they do in the United States. Across the Atlantic, 19 percentage points of gross value-added growth were accounted for, from 1995 to 2005, by local services,3 business services,4 and professional and financial services. In the EU-15, these added only 10 percentage points (Exhibit 1).

From the 1960s to the mid-1990s, Europe steadily closed its productivity gap with the United States. But then the gap started widening again—and one important reason was that Europe’s service sectors underperformed their US counterparts (Exhibit 2). While productivity is not an end in itself, it is a critical means to an end: per capita GDP, competitiveness, and productivity move in lockstep. If Europe is to close the per capita GDP gap with the United States, it will therefore have to boost productivity, particularly that of services. US productivity grew by 22 percent between 1995 and 2005, and local, business, and professional and financial services together contributed half of that expansion. In Europe, productivity grew by 15 percent, of which only one-quarter came from these service industries.

Many policy makers in Europe are maintaining the traditional focus on technology-intensive and manufacturing sectors, reflecting their strong role in productivity growth and the exposure of the region’s economies to global competition. But the fact remains that as the number of manufacturing jobs has declined in the EU-15, only the service sectors have increased their levels of employment. It is the service sectors that offer Europe the major potential for job creation.

How to raise European service productivity

A range of regulatory and market barriers stand in the way of higher productivity in European services, which suffer from relatively low scale in many operations and from product, land, and labor market regulations that inhibit competition. MGI sees two important areas to address. It will also be necessary to ensure that enablers for growth, including infrastructure and skills, are in place.

Injecting competition

The liberalization of monopolistic industries in Europe has consistently led to dramatic increases in productivity. Coupled with standardization, regulation to heighten competition has made a success story of telecommunications, for example. GSM—the Global System for Mobile Communications—was initially deployed in seven European countries, in 1992; today the system has more than four billion users worldwide. In the road freight industry, the relaxation of price controls and the removal of barriers to cross-border trade led to a 15 to 25 percent drop in tariffs and 5 percent-plus annual productivity gains throughout the 1990s in France and Germany.

Despite such examples, many other service industries, including postal services, rail transport, and professional services (such as law and accounting), continue to receive regulatory protection from competition. Entry barriers are still common. Many European countries limit the number of pharmacies, for instance, in effect creating regional monopolies on retail sales of medicinal products. Some European countries set price ceilings or floors—for architects and lawyers in Italy and Germany, among others. France and Spain prohibit advertising for notaries. Some countries have abolished such advertising and price restrictions in recent years, apparently without damaging these markets. But regulation remains high overall. In professional services, the 2008 product market regulation index of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is nearly twice as high for Europe as for the United States.

Deregulation

Regulation not only hinders competition in Europe’s service sectors but can also compromise the efficiency of operations. Retailing, for instance, still suffers from restrictive land and product regulations. Zoning laws that limit the size and density of stores put bigger, more efficient formats like hypermarkets at a competitive disadvantage: in France, the introduction of more restrictive rules on the size of retail outlets during the 1990s halted the sector’s productivity growth—opening new stores larger than 6,000 square meters became virtually impossible—and the restrictions eventually had to be eased. In the United Kingdom, the number of new stores opening has slowed because of insufficient reform to planning laws. In the Netherlands, individual municipalities have the power to prevent retailers from selling televisions in furniture stores.

Strict labor laws, which often encourage informality, are another barrier to productivity. Businesses have an incentive to stay smaller to avoid a higher level of regulatory scrutiny, and this stratagem prevents companies from achieving scale in fragmented industries, including construction. (In Portugal, informal labor accounts for more than a quarter of the hours worked in residential construction.) In retailing, Dutch labor legislation typically requires stores to pay their employees 30 percent more for evening work.

Operational barriers remain rife too. In land transport, standardized road freight containers that could boost productivity have not achieved widespread use. In the construction industry, the complex way projects are set up compromises productivity: traditionally, there are separate tenders for design, engineering, and actual construction. That undermines coordination and inefficiency—for instance, contractors are rarely involved in the design phase to discuss cost-efficient construction specs and materials. Since the public sector accounts for 33 percent of all construction in Germany and for 25 percent in the United Kingdom, if governments changed their procurement and tendering processes, they could directly help to institutionalize best practices.

Emulating best practice

European service sectors could vastly increase their productivity and growth. Take food retailing. If the EU-15 as a whole achieved the productivity levels of its top-quartile countries in this sector—admittedly not an easy task in many places—it could achieve a 44 percent boost in productivity. This would translate into a 21 percent increase in the productivity of retailing in general, or a 0.75 percent increase in the value added generated by the entire EU-15 economy. (These figures assume that the hours freed up as a result of improved productivity will be reallocated to the rest of the economy at current sector productivity levels.)

In road freight, emulating best practice would boost the productivity of land transport by 50 percent, adding 0.4 percent of incremental GDP to Europe’s economy. Reaching best practice in construction could boost its productivity by 12 percent, for a 0.5 percent increase in the value added generated by the European economy overall.

Europe’s low-key revolution in reforming its product and labor markets fueled a relatively solid economic performance before the global crisis hit. But in the early aftermath of the global recession, Europe is battling to revive the headwinds of growth—with little scope to prime the pump, given high debt and deficits. If it is to sustain robust growth in the coming years, structural reform is no longer optional, and freeing service industries to compete is a vital component of that change.

Read an executive summary or download the full report at the McKinsey & Company Web site.

About the Authors

Jan Mischke is an associate principal in McKinsey’s Zurich office; Baudouin Regout; who is based in Brussels, is a senior fellow of the McKinsey Global Institute; Charles Roxburgh is a director in the London office and a director of MGI.

Notes

1 In our study, Europe refers to the EU-15: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. In 2009, these economies accounted for 88 percent of the EU-27’s GDP in terms of purchasing power parity and for 98 percent of the eurozone’s GDP.

2 MGI clusters Europe into three groups. In Northern Europe (including Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom), productivity is about average, but labor utilization is much higher than the EU-15 average. Continental Europe (including France and Germany) has above-average productivity but below-average labor utilization. Southern Europe (including the major Mediterranean economies) suffers from lagging productivity and low employment levels, partially compensated for by high levels of annual hours worked.

3 Including automotive, hotels, private domestic and social services, rental activities, restaurants, and wholesaling.

4 Computers and related activities, R&D, and software and IT services.

Recommend (83)
  • 11 JANUARY 2011
    Geoffrey Igharo
    Consultant
    Creuna
    Oslo, Norway

    ...The real issue then is about creating conditions that allow smaller, hungrier, innovative retail competitors to flourish, rather than relaxing planning laws and ending up killing what’s left of communities.

    .
    Geoffrey Igharo
    Consultant
    Creuna
    Oslo, Norway

    Interesting article but it falls down by the time it starts to put forward causes and suggest solutions. I think some of this is due to a lack of in-depth understanding. It’s hard to generalize across “Europe” which is really much more fragmented in culture, regulations, etcetera, than the US.

    For example the article says, “In the United Kingdom, the number of new stores opening has slowed because of insufficient reform to planning laws”. Well frankly the UK has no shortage of stores or retail space. The real issue in the UK is that a small handful of megaretailers are blighting communities with soulless shops that make every high street (read: downtown) look the same. More of that is not going to make the UK better. So the “reform” these retailers are seeking is really to be able to bypass planing laws and march on with their mission to create clone towns. Is that of value? Probably not. The real issue then is about creating conditions that allow smaller, hungrier, innovative retail competitors to flourish, rather than relaxing planning laws and ending up killing what’s left of communities.

    .
  • 27 DECEMBER 2010
    Santosh Pandey
    Commercial Controller
    ArcelorMittal
    Czech Republic

    ...It’s high time that Europe takes note of it and improves its labor market which remains highly protected (like communist countries) and makes its people more competitive in the global arena....

    .
    Santosh Pandey
    Commercial Controller
    ArcelorMittal
    Czech Republic

    The author has rightly put the GAP between US and EU productivity. It’s high time that Europe takes note of it and improves its labor market which remains highly protected (like communist countries) and makes its people more competitive in the global arena. The laid back and relaxed work culture is at its extreme right now in Europe. It seems as if people are not working, rather holidaying. If this GAP is not addressed by correct measures at this time, it will be too late for Europe.

    .
  • 23 DECEMBER 2010
    Venugopal Rao Pendyala
    Head Business Planning New Products Introduction
    Tata Motors
    Pune Maharashtra India

    ...Europeans must adopt like Japan continuous/continual improvement or growth methodology.

    .
    Venugopal Rao Pendyala
    Head Business Planning New Products Introduction
    Tata Motors
    Pune Maharashtra India

    It is really a challenging time for European countries to raise their productivity levels. The author has indicated precisely and touched upon all the points. Going forward, they will have a tough fight from BRIC countries. Productivity is one aspect, Europeans must adopt like Japan continuous/continual improvement or growth methodology.

    .
  • 9 DECEMBER 2010
    Dr Seemit Dhage
    Tribal
    London UK

    I think there are many points to note in this trend. First, the way business was being done in the period where US and Europe were at par has changed considerably....

    .
    Dr Seemit Dhage
    Tribal
    London UK

    I think there are many points to note in this trend. First, the way business was being done in the period where US and Europe were at par has changed considerably. The businesses which were profitable in that era are struggling to be sustainable currently, if they haven’t already gone to dust. Also, while the US-based firms started looking for more opportunities and in a way led the way by taking more risk—e.g. outsourcing everything from manufacturing to services—their European counterparts felt that this was going to all fall apart and people would reject Indian- and Chinese-made goods and services. In the quest to be original and maintain that originality, European companies struggled to match US. There was some truth in that, but at the end of the day, consumers prefer price over quality, and cheaper products have won the battle. More and more EU-based firms are now outsourcing to Asia, the trend of EU falling behind may not last long.

    .
  • 10 NOVEMBER 2010
    Roberto Rodríguez
    Senior Manager, Business process consulting unit
    Grupo Santander
    Madrid, Spain

    The conclusions of this study are very aligned with the experience of living in Europe, when equating depth and availability of services, price levels, and family income, and comparing those to the US equivalent....

    .
    Roberto Rodríguez
    Senior Manager, Business process consulting unit
    Grupo Santander
    Madrid, Spain

    The conclusions of this study are very aligned with the experience of living in Europe, when equating depth and availability of services, price levels, and family income, and comparing those to the US equivalent. The example of the pharmacies, retailers and professional services is aligned with this vision. Mainly, it is originated on many laws and regulations protecting small stores and distribution monopolies, with very high margins at the expense of higher prices, that at the end, the consumer pays.

    .
  • 8 NOVEMBER 2010
    Leif Engdell
    Stockholm University
    Sweden

    ...Cheap labour and deregulated workforces only put people at the mercy of fickle corporate forces....

    .
    Leif Engdell
    Stockholm University
    Sweden

    I’m sorry, but the service sector is, apart from the weapons industry, the anathema of the US economy. Should Europe emulate the US? To what end? At best we end up in the same trouble as the US. Cheap labour and deregulated workforces only put people at the mercy of fickle corporate forces.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    The authors reply:

    Leif, We encourage you to read the McKinsey Global Institute’s full report entitled, “Beyond austerity: A path to economic growth and renewal in Europe.”

    Indeed, Europe should not emulate the US, but leverage its own best practices in a “European way.” Interestingly, Sweden and other Scandinavian and Northern European countries are often quoted as examples to follow.

    OUR REPLY
  • 3 NOVEMBER 2010
    Clymer Law
    Instructor
    USD445
    Coffeyville, KS USA

    The essence of the comments show the real problem here: how productivity is measured, and whether that measurement is valid. There can be no valid measurement until we find a common standard to use....

    .
    Clymer Law
    Instructor
    USD445
    Coffeyville, KS USA

    The essence of the comments show the real problem here: how productivity is measured, and whether that measurement is valid. There can be no valid measurement until we find a common standard to use. This is an area where the global approach is valid.

    The area where the global approach is not valid is in the economies of scale being produced, which narrow the base of wealth to fewer and fewer people. We need to look back at the 19th century and ask ourselves why regulation came into the marketplace in the first place. The answer is the growth of monopolies, and the threat they had upon a society that wanted to make choices for itself, first in the United States, and later in Europe as their democracies spread. Now we need to add the world. Regulation came into being because market forces could not compete with the greed of individuals for wealth and power. The first was not as threatening as the last.

    Today we hear economies of scale preached again as the United States went through a period of deregulation beginning in the 1980s that we are now reaping the results of in terms of high unemployment. The push is on to go toward a “one-world government” to solve these problems. The question that must be answered is, What type of government would that be? With economies of scale consolidating wealth into the hands of the few, I’m afraid at the moment that government would be a Fascist dictatorship of the worst order.

    10% unemployment in the United States, and it is actually greater than that is unacceptable. It is a nation born of revolution, and at some point, treating people with that kind of heritage as being unimportant will once again lead to revolution.

    “Free market” capitalism is the term most often talked about as ideal. Adam Smith is often quoted in extolling its virtues, but everything has a context. Those who extoll the virtue of Wealth of Nations should also read Smith’s earlier work The Theory of Moral Sentiments. To understand something, you cannot only look at one side of it which favors your arguments. Smith would completely astounded at how his work is being abused in today’s World. The context of free markets must be held within moral constraints. Deregulation has always led to violation of moral constraints.

    The real answer is finding “balance” in every aspect of what we do. That creates happiness, builds productivity, and engenders respect for ourselves and each other.

    That is why we must question economies of scale and their long-term effects on the societies of the world. To get something right, you have to get to the right question.

    The real question: Can we measure something without a common measurement used by all? Can we form a government that allows for the extreme differences in our cultural background to continue to exist and be respected?

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Baudouin Regout responds:

    Clymer, Thanks for sharing your thoughts. You raise a number of points that border the question of societal choice, which is best addressed in a democratic political debate than in an economic analysis. The task of the economist is to find ‘efficiencies’ that would benefit all, it is then up to the society to determine whether going for such efficiencies would run counter to moral or political choice.

    And I’ll add just one point on regulation: the word ‘deregulation’ can be understood in an extreme way, which we don’t mean. We prefer to talk about ‘smart regulation’ which fosters healthy competition, to the benefit of the consumers, and which can also actually increase jobs. The anti-trust regulation, which you correctly point out, is a prime example that full deregulation may not lead to an optimum outcome for economic efficiency and society.

    OUR REPLY
  • 26 OCTOBER 2010
    Dan Coll
    Owner
    The Dan Coll Agency
    Tecumseh, ON Canada

    ...They are not anti-business, but intelligent reasoning is integral to the process. Regulation is the only means to enforce the wishes of the society.

    .
    Dan Coll
    Owner
    The Dan Coll Agency
    Tecumseh, ON Canada

    Travel in Europe shows a difference in infrastructure and quality of life. No doubt rampant, 19th century protectionism should go, but let’s not fall prey to knee-jerk nonsense about lazy Europeans, excess vacations, featherbedding, etcetera. Their city centers are vibrant, not the derelict wastelands all too common here, and initiatives are vetted for the good of all society, not simply commerce. They are not anti-business, but intelligent reasoning is integral to the process. Regulation is the only means to enforce the wishes of the society.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    The authors respond:

    Dan, Thank you for your thoughtful comments. On the issue of the European “quality of life,” as we mention in our response to Leif Engdell above, we certainly agree that Europe should find a “European way” of reforms, learning from European best practices. We discuss this in greater detail in the McKinsey Global Institute’s full report entitled, “Beyond austerity: A path to economic growth and renewal in Europe.”

    OUR REPLY
  • 25 OCTOBER 2010
    Nicholas Spanos
    Sr. Consultant
    CAI
    Harrisburg, PA USA

    ...An increase in productivity is not necessarily a positive sign. There is a tipping point where sacrificing jobs to increase productivity actually hurts economic growth....

    .
    Nicholas Spanos
    Sr. Consultant
    CAI
    Harrisburg, PA USA

    Productivity in a growing economy is a way to enable growth and increase profits without the negative impacts of competing for scarce resources. In a lagging economy, it is a way to reduce staff/costs to retain profit in a shrinking market. An increase in productivity is not necessarily a positive sign. There is a tipping point where sacrificing jobs to increase productivity actually hurts economic growth. After all, employees are also consumers. Europe’s lagging productivity is not necessarily a negative.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Jan Mischke and Baudouin Regout respond:

    Nick, This is sure a topic of active debate, particularly in the aftermath of the financial crisis. As a matter of fact, the US did boost productivity since 2008 by reducing jobs—an effect that was buffered in most European countries through longer labour market cycle times and schemes like the Kurzarbeit in Germany. The gap of European productivity, however, has been widening since 1995, and continued over more than a decade of growth (despite the 2001 recession) in which Europe created more than 24 million net new jobs. Structural reforms should be addressed now so that they become fully effective by the time of the next economic upswing. Let us note also that productivity as we talk about it is not limited to an efficiency game. The majority of productivity increases typically comes from improving service or product quality or functionality and innovation of business models, processes, or technologies.

    OUR REPLY
  • 25 OCTOBER 2010
    Stuart Reeve
    Information Architect
    View PLC
    London UK

    ...we need to realise that this goal of unlimited growth in a limited world is impossible. Not only that, it’s deeply destructive when taken to its logical conclusion....

    .
    Stuart Reeve
    Information Architect
    View PLC
    London UK

    Regarding Roy’s comments below, I couldn’t agree more. Whilst there is an inherent need to boost productivity, to use resources of all kinds more efficiently we need to realise that this goal of unlimited growth in a limited world is impossible. Not only that, it’s deeply destructive when taken to its logical conclusion.

    One of the things that you notice when travelling in Europe is that, yes, it may be less efficient and ‘messy’, but wow, people have a great quality of life, including the non material, intangible elements—friends, family, good food, nice architecture—a real work-life balance. So many of us, especially those in the US, are looking for these things to fill that certain void in our lives that are currently being plugged by endless, vapid consumerism.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    The authors respond:

    Stuart, On the issue of the European “quality of life,” as we mention in a couple other responses above, we certainly agree that Europe should find a “European way” of reforms, learning from European best practices rather than importing American concepts. We discuss this in greater detail in the McKinsey Global Institute’s full report entitled, “Beyond austerity: A path to economic growth and renewal in Europe.”

    You also refer to limitations in resources which might ultimately limit or slow down growth. This is where the notion of productivity is useful, as it primarily measures how efficient we are in using our available resources. A full measure of productivity (called total factor productivity) looks at how efficiently we use all resources. So, if one can object to the goal of unlimited growth per capita, one would probably agree that a more efficient use of our resources—i.e. productivity growth—would be a good thing.

    OUR REPLY
  • 23 OCTOBER 2010
    Anil Laud
    MD
    Enzian Consulting
    Mumbai, India

    I wonder if per capita GDP is the right measure of productivity. Presuming it has been used for want of a better measure, how do you compensate for currency fluctuations?...

    .
    Anil Laud
    MD
    Enzian Consulting
    Mumbai, India

    First, I wonder if per capita GDP is the right measure of productivity. Presuming it has been used for want of a better measure, how do you compensate for currency fluctuations? Second, an average person in the US is workaholic compared with the European on lifestyle, which falls more in line with my personal philosophy which is ‘work smart and not just hard.’ Third, in Central Europe one enjoys at least 6 weeks of annual vacation as versus 2 to 3 weeks in the US. I am sure if one normalizes for these differences, productivity of the European would the same as in the US.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Jan Mischke responds:

    Anil, Thank you for your thoughtful comments. Regarding currency fluctuations, to compensate for exchange rate fluctuations and to measure real output, our data actually show GDP adjusted by purchasing power parities. The data also show productivity as output per hour, so the fact that—for various reasons—Europeans do work substantially fewer hours, is indeed incorporated in the numbers. Even taking these factors into account, productivity and productivity growth still lag, so another round of innovation to “work smarter” will be required to get Europe back on its previous trajectory to catch up.

    OUR REPLY
  • 21 OCTOBER 2010
    Kunal Kishore
    Faculty
    IMS learning Solutions
    Dhanbad, India

    An excellent analysis but the same analysis applies to comparison between United States and India. The parameters are the same but with little difference.

    .
    Kunal Kishore
    Faculty
    IMS learning Solutions
    Dhanbad, India

    An excellent analysis but the same analysis applies to comparison between United States and India. The parameters are the same but with little difference.

    .
  • 19 OCTOBER 2010
    Jim Bullis
    President
    Miastrada Company
    Sunnyvale, CA USA

    It is amazing to find that the term ‘productivity’ is the focus of this article, according to the heading, but the article discusses nothing about industrial productivity.

    .
    Jim Bullis
    President
    Miastrada Company
    Sunnyvale, CA USA

    It is amazing to find that the term ‘productivity’ is the focus of this article, according to the heading, but the article discusses nothing about industrial productivity.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Jan Mischke and Baudouin Regout respond:

    Jim, Manufacturing productivity increases in Europe contributed as strongly to economic growth in Europe as they did in the US. It is crucial for economies in a globally competitive setup, and is also the focus of much of the political and public debate. We focus on services here, as services make up the majority of economic activity in advanced economies and are accountable for the entire growth gap between Europe and the US. We’ll also note that productivity as we talk about it is not limited to an efficiency game. The majority of productivity increases typically comes from improving service or product quality or functionality and innovation of business models, processes, or technologies.

    OUR REPLY
  • 19 OCTOBER 2010
    John Voeller
    Senior VP
    Black & Veatch
    Overland Park, KS USA

    ...the focus on productivity inside corporate walls is now a silly, narrow perspective. The reality is that the total delivery cycle efficiency of a product or service is much more important...

    .
    John Voeller
    Senior VP
    Black & Veatch
    Overland Park, KS USA

    All your observations are accurate and frankly well known, but the focus on productivity inside corporate walls is now a silly, narrow perspective. The reality is that the total delivery cycle efficiency of a product or service is much more important in a global economy and because they are used to selling to the world from the time of the UK, Spanish, Portugese, and especially the Dutch traders, they see globalization as a naming exercise for those who do not have that heritage. Whether it is the ability of UK organizations to bring quantity surveyors into an Indian project to control costs or a German equipment provider to quickly bring prime movers into central Africa by long standing logistics relationships, we need to metrics tuned to global processes and thinking.

    .
  • 18 OCTOBER 2010
    Kenneth Armitage
    Lt Commander
    Suffolk, East Anglia, England, UK

    ...the question is what part of the service sector is going to create the employment opportunities to deal with something in the order of 10%+ of the population in many European countries that are out of work...

    .
    Kenneth Armitage
    Lt Commander
    Suffolk, East Anglia, England, UK

    “But the fact remains that as the number of manufacturing jobs has declined in the EU-15, only the service sectors have increased their levels of employment. It is the service sectors that offer Europe the major potential for job creation.”

    You are quite correct to point out that the number of manufacturing jobs in western advanced European nations—with the possible exception of Germany that relies on high quality mechanical, electrical and electronic engineering to support its economy—has been in decline for the last 20 or 30 years. In the case of the UK, our industrial and manufacturing base disappeared because some politicians believe manufacturing isn’t important and that somehow countries can rely on the banking and finance sector and the retail trades, incidentally flogging products manufactured mostly in India and China, and the cost of private housing to keep economies afloat. In UK, the only service sector to show any increase over the last decade was the public sector, and those jobs only lead to an increase in the public sector debt. The situation was exacerbated when companies in the service sector providing jobs in call centres outsourced, off-shored, or exported those call centre jobs to India thus increasing the level of unemployment.

    But it does not work like that because customers and clients still demand all kinds of manufactured goods for personal use, cars, clothing, curtains, carpeting, chairs, and beds to furnish their homes and besides, the banking and finance sector has proved to be a greedy and a most unreliable and inefficient collection of people basically because of weak regulatory systems in the US and the UK, and the price of housing, over here and over there, is still falling placing additional pressure on family incomes.

    Therefore, the question is what part of the service sector is going to create the employment opportunities to deal with something in the order of 10%+ of the population in many European countries that are out of work or classed as ‘economically inactive’? It is a question to be posed to the new Coalition government in UK because it they do not address this issue they will find it increasingly difficult to deal with the UK national and UK public sector debt.

    As for deficits, the US trade deficit is running at US$46bn a month or approximately US$510bn a year and for how long can that go on? Agriculture in the US, wheat, feed grain, cotton, milk, rice, peanuts, sugar, tobacco, and oilseeds, is allegedly subsidized, and it is the same in Europe with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and export subsidies that eat up 43bn Euros or 34% of the EU budget, in order to keep smaller and inefficient farms, mostly in France and Germany and some other EU member nations, still operating. This is one major area that the EU parliament must address sooner rather than later especially when it relates to expanding populations and the need for food and water security.

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    The authors reply:

    Kenneth, Indeed a rebalancing of funds and subsidies from preservation to innovation is a proiminent theme in our full McKinsey Global Institute report entitled, “Beyond austerity: A path to economic growth and renewal in Europe.” The report also comprises a broader look at labour market issues and further growth areas for the service sector. A specific McKinsey report on growth in the UK is due to be published later this year.

    OUR REPLY
  • 18 OCTOBER 2010
    Robin Dunford-Green
    Director
    Continuity-solutions.co.uk
    London, UK

    Interestingly, the article reveals a method whereby companies in Europe might individually make progress, and perhaps a counter-intuitive way at that....

    .
    Robin Dunford-Green
    Director
    Continuity-solutions.co.uk
    London, UK

    Interestingly, the article reveals a method whereby companies in Europe might individually make progress, and perhaps a counter-intuitive way at that.

    The macro-economic view, when reversed like a telescope, narrows down a potentially highly fruitful area of activity for European firms whereby they can perhaps achieve significant progress.

    The suggestion I am making is that, since as pointed out “A range of regulatory and market barriers stand in the way of higher productivity in European services, which suffer from relatively low scale in many operations and from product, land, and labor market regulations that inhibit competition. MGI sees two important areas to address...” and then goes on to cite “Injecting competition” and “Deregulation” as the two important areas, and “It will also be necessary to ensure that enablers for growth, including infrastructure and skills, are in place.”, then a potential strategy for individual firms emerges.

    Working from the local up to the macro level, whilst lobbying for the macro-conditions to be improved within the context of their particular country within Europe, if firms budgeted defined and targeted effort (sacrificed, if you like) specifically to increasing their understanding and ability to work with and within the regulations rather than how to avoid or get around in general, and therefore how to best use where beneficial, comply with speedily where they can and must, and control the negative impact of as best they can where there is little alternative, then the rest of the firm’s endeavours could more profitably be spent in increasing output and productivity.

    And it remains a possibility of course that from within some of the welter of regulations and bureaucracy some beneficial gems may emerge that surprisingly contribute to the firm’s progress—after all, some regulations must be good!?

    Perhaps a little like stopping banging one’s head against the wall, and simply acknowledging that the wall is there but a better way through could be to walk along it to the door. Or to the window.

    So the prescription could be to find someone knowledgeable in the regulations that impact widely in your firm (perhaps from newly liberated townhall-istas) who has a spark of ingenuity as well; brief them to study and assess regulations into categories as above; see what really might be of use and assistance; and set about energetically implementing at least those.

    It surely has to be a defence against not having implemented them ‘all’ that one HAS helped the firm’s staff understand and fully and successfully implemented all of ‘these’ shiny rules and regulations and improved productivity, and the ‘rest’ are in the project and program plans.

    The trick might also be to find a way of simplifying the matter of describing applicable regulations, measuring progress towards achieving them with definable ‘real-world’ actions, and demonstrating progress usefully and graphically with a visual ‘Action-Status’ profile.

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    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Jan Mischke responds:

    Robin, Thank you for this valuable suggestion. Maybe companies can also work more closely with regulators to jointly define regulations in the most mutually beneficial ways.

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  • 18 OCTOBER 2010
    Roger Kokasih
    Director
    Pacific Gate
    Jakarta, Indoensia

    Colossal department stores in a massive building surrounded by smaller chain retailers with ample car parking spaces but very little ambiance is not what is sought after by many outside the USA....

    .
    Roger Kokasih
    Director
    Pacific Gate
    Jakarta, Indoensia

    Colossal department stores in a massive building surrounded by smaller chain retailers with ample car parking spaces but very little ambiance is not what is sought after by many outside the USA. Foreign visitors always appraise highly of the elegance of European shopping. Yes, let’s overhaul the professional and financial services and let it crumble like the US financial market and burden the taxpayers. Sometimes is better not to be too American. Let’s have a survey and come up with some conclusive outcome whether Europeans really want to be American-like, it’s very unlikely and perhaps its better to find a solution that is more European instead.

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    The authors respond:

    Roger, Thank you for your comments. We encourage you to read the McKinsey Global Institute’s full report entitled, “Beyond austerity: A path to economic growth and renewal in Europe.” We indeed agree that Europe should find a “European way” of reforms, learning from European best practices rather than importing American concepts which may not suit European societal preferences. Sweden, for example, reformed its retail sector in the 90s and managed to outgrow US productivity in this area—without being known for a particularly unpleasant building or shopping experience. And professional services include areas as important to progression as R&D organizations, which are certainly not the cause of any financial crisis. We argue that Europe has all the tools available “in house”—if leaders are willing to look at what is being done in neighboring countries and take the bold actions required to overcome the resistance of individual groups.

    OUR REPLY
  • 18 OCTOBER 2010
    Harry Moser
    Chairman Emeritus
    Agie Charmilles
    Kildeer, IL USA

    Another reason Europe apparently lags behind is that the US overstates productivity improvement by allowing the impact of increased offshoring to incorrectly increase our measured value-added/worker....

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    Harry Moser
    Chairman Emeritus
    Agie Charmilles
    Kildeer, IL USA

    Another reason Europe apparently lags behind is that the US overstates productivity improvement by allowing the impact of increased offshoring to incorrectly increase our measured value-added/worker. The Europeans do not offshore as much and might calculate more accurately.

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    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Jan Mischke and Baudouin Regout respond:

    Harry, In principle, using value added per worker corrects for the impact of increased offshoring, whereas a simple measure of ‘sales’ per worker would not. So, most of this potential bias should be minimized. There are, however, in practice, still some differences in national accounting, which are the source of an active debate among academics. Offshoring of information and communication technologies (ICT) equipment is particularly affected, as the US applies hedonic deflation models for ICT outputs, but not for the (off-shored) inputs. Other areas of discussion include accounting for military weapon expenses or for non-priced retail banking services. We would argue that particularly local services like retail, hotels, restaurants—which are where most of the growth and productivity dfferentials originate—are not affected in any major way by these accounting differences.

    OUR REPLY
  • 18 OCTOBER 2010
    Roy Wiseman
    CIO
    Region of Peel
    Brampton, ON Canada

    I wonder whether the entire paradigm around productivity is becoming obsolete. The focus on productivity (production per capita) assumes that continued “growth” is both sustainable and desirable...

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    Roy Wiseman
    CIO
    Region of Peel
    Brampton, ON Canada

    I wonder whether the entire paradigm around productivity is becoming obsolete. The focus on productivity (production per capita) assumes that continued “growth” is both sustainable and desirable, notwithstanding that such growth imposes an ever increasing drain on the planet’s finite resources.

    At what point is growth replaced as a goal by sustainability? Perhaps our goal should be to reduce per capita production and consumpton to sustainable levels. In this context, we may need to consider more leisure (non-productive) time as contibuting to the societal balance sheet.

    In this regard, our measurement of “production” is inherently biased. If I pay someone else to look after my children, it contributes to the GDP and our measurement of production. If I look after my own children, it doesn’t count.

    Some of the productivity gains of the past half century have been simply shifting some activities (child care, preparation of meals) from the “non productive” to the “productive” side of the balance sheet. They are now counted differently, but haven’t necessarily increased their value to our society.

    Unless we change how we measure productivity, an economic system that relies on continued growth in production and consumption is proceeding towards a dead end. By all means, let’s consume fewer resources (both labour and other inputs) to generate the same outputs, but let’s also find a way to value those outputs. Simply producing and consuming more products and services that don’t add real value, is a false measure of productivity. It is like rewarding those in our organizations for their amount of activity, while ignoring the quality of what they produce.

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    MKQ_response

    McKinsey’s Jan Mischke and Baudouin Regout respond:

    Roy, You’re certainly right that measurements of GDP suffer a couple of shortcomings. First, while they take into account the use of natural resources, they may not do it well enough, and GDP measurements certainly do not capture environmental impact. So, the debate on extra measures to safeguard the environment, potentially at the cost of GDP growth, is justified.

    Second—and this is a core criticism of GDP—this metric typically does not account for any type of work “at home” and outside of the labour market. To address this, the productivity data we show actually looks at “real value added per hour worked,” so it approximates how effectively countries work with their most valuable resource: their people’s time. It appears that Europe has recently fallen behind pace on innovating the way it works in some service sectors, and hasn’t created as much value from the work people put in as it could.

    If Europe manages to once again boost its pace of innovation, a thorough political process—and certainly not we—should determine whether the dividend of increased hourly value added should be used to allow for more leisure time or for growth in production. So far, however, the developments in most parts of the world indicate that people seem to appreciate additional growth in outputs, and the fact that European economies are aging at high pace actually requires productivity growth just to maintain current standards of living.

    OUR REPLY
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