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McKinsey Global Survey of Business Executives: Confidence Index, April 2007

Executives around the world retain a positive economic outlook, despite less improvement in economic conditions than expected six months ago. Many plan to continue hiring, and the most senior executives are the likeliest to foresee larger workforces.

Since September 2006 many executives have seen less improvement in the economic conditions of their nations and industries than they had expected, according to the latest McKinsey Global Survey.1 Even in regions where improvement has exceeded expectations, the view is that the next six months will be not quite as robust. Nonetheless, hiring expectations remain stable—and in China, even exuberant: 73 percent of respondents there say hiring will increase, compared with 56 percent only three months ago.

Executives throughout the world still rate economic conditions more positively than negatively, a view they have maintained over the past six months. Notably, executives in developed economies in Asia and developing economies around the world continue to have more confidence than executives in other regions (Exhibit 1). Indeed, when we compare executives’ perceptions about their countries’ current economic conditions with their expectations six months ago, responses vary widely by region (Exhibit 2). At that time only 39 percent of respondents in the Asia-Pacific region expected economic conditions in their countries to improve; now more than half of them say their economies have gotten better. By contrast, fewer executives in North America see improved conditions than had anticipated doing so. Ditto for India, though more executives there have seen improvement than in any other country or region.

Expectations for the future also vary by region, with less optimism in the developed world (Exhibit 3). Although only 47 percent of respondents from the Asia-Pacific region expect economic conditions in their countries to improve six months down the road, that figure remains much higher than the share of executives in the rest of the developed world who expect improvement. Overall, respondents in North America are less confident than the global average, as they were six months ago.

Executives’ views of their industries’ chances are similar: respondents in the developed regions of the world are less positive about future economic conditions in their industries than respondents in the developing world are. This pattern of responses may reflect the current shift in economic activity between and within regions and the growing importance of consumers in emerging markets.2 In North America respondents are the most negative; little more than a third expect economic conditions in their industries to be better six months from now.

Even so, hiring expectations have remained stable across the board, except in China (Exhibit 4). Only 3 percent of respondents there expect their workforces to decrease over the next six months; a half year ago, nearly five times as many expected a decrease. Almost three-quarters of respondents in China now expect to increase their workforces, a significant majority expect new jobs to be created within existing business units, and more than half say the jobs will be located in the same countries as the corporate headquarters are.

The most senior executives and others have very different hiring expectations (Exhibit 5). More than half of C-level respondents3 expect their workforces to increase over the next six months, while 43 percent of non-C-level respondents expect the same. Among those who agree that their workforces will grow, expectations of where those new employees will be and what they will do also vary widely (Exhibit 6): 71 percent of C-level respondents say new employees will fill roles in the same countries as headquarters, while only half of non-C-level respondents say the same.

Executives at all levels agree that most of the new hires will perform functions created in response to new market opportunities. Non-C-level respondents are more likely to say these employees will take on functions designed to take advantage of geographic differences in labor markets.

Among the relatively small proportion of executives who expect their workforces to decrease, the C-level respondents are almost three times as likely as non-C-level respondents to say jobs will be lost as a result of closing a division or business unit (Exhibit 7). This pattern may reflect senior executives’ greater knowledge of corporate-level strategy.

Notes

1 The McKinsey Quarterly conducted the survey in March 2007 and received responses from 3,693 executives from around the world.

2 In a follow-up survey to this one, when executives were asked about top business trends, 84 percent said the growing number of consumers in emerging markets will have the most impact on global business during the next five years. See “Acting on global trends: A McKinsey Global Survey,” The McKinsey Quarterly, Web exclusive, May 2007.

3 This survey includes responses from 1,382 C-level executives, including 593 board members.

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