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Global capital markets: Entering a new era

A new report by the McKinsey Global Institute highlights the impact of the global financial crisis on global capital flows.

Global capital markets: Entering a new era article, global capital markets and recession, Economic Studies

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The global financial crisis and worldwide recession abruptly halted nearly three decades of expansion for international capital markets. From 1980 through 2007, the world’s financial assets—including equities, private and public debt, and bank deposits—nearly quadrupled in size relative to global GDP. Global capital flows similarly surged.

But the upheaval in financial markets in late 2008 broke this trend. The total value of the world’s financial assets fell by $16 trillion last year, to $178 trillion, the largest setback on record. One of the most striking consequences of the financial crisis was a steep drop-off in cross-border capital flows, which include foreign direct investment (FDI), purchases and sales of foreign equities and debt securities, and cross-border lending and deposits. These capital flows fell 82 percent, to just $1.9 trillion, from $10.5 trillion in 2007. (A sharp drop in cross-border lending was the biggest reason capital flows dried up.) The trend appears to have continued in the first quarter of 2009, with global capital flows falling to an estimated $1.5 trillion on an annualized basis.

These are among the findings in the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report Global capital markets: Entering a new era, which presents the latest research on the evolution of the world’s financial markets. The report assesses the implications of the global financial crisis and economic downturn through the lens of financial assets, capital inflows and outflows, and cross-border investments since 1990 of more than 100 countries around the world.

To read an executive summary or download the complete report, visit mckinsey.com/mgi.

About the Authors
Susan Lund is director of research at the McKinsey Global Institute, and Charles Roxburgh is a director in McKinsey’s London office.
Recommend (43)
  • 25 SEPTEMBER 2009
    Larry Swinford
    Research Editor
    Global University
    Springfield, MO USA

    This appears far more ominous than political leadership and common news media care to describe (or possibly comprehend)...

    .
    Larry Swinford
    Research Editor
    Global University
    Springfield, MO USA

    This appears far more ominous than political leadership and common news media care to describe (or possibly comprehend). While equities are often (as in this summary) measured by market value (last price times the number of shares outstanding) the underlying book values (equity divided by the number of shares outstanding) were not as volatile. The Federal Reserve traditionally makes minor steering actions through monetary policies that affect interest rates and money velocity. I fear that we are in some lull before a storm. The conditions of this global economy are unsustainable considering these factors. American politicians are tied to selected Keynesian policies that will only make things worse in the fashion they attempt to wield them. No wonder the Federal Reserve has been overreaching. Thank you for the ‘heads up.’

    .
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Authors Susan Lund and Charles Roxburgh examine how the crisis rolled through the global financial system—and discuss the implications for the future of the global economy. To listen, use the audio tool in the box to the left.
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