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Can Africa continue to grow?

A panel of regional business leaders discusses its prospects.

Gross corruption, constant wars, and irrational economics long made Africa a poor, troubled continent where natural-resource companies were almost the only multinationals that dared or cared to do business. But in the 1990s, the picture improved. The wars started subsiding. Many governments balanced their budgets and created a better, safer environment for companies, both foreign and domestic. And the African consumer began to stir. Now 80 million households earn at least the equivalent of $5,000 annually, the point where discretionary spending commences—an increase of 80 percent in eight years. Meanwhile, the continent’s GDP has been rising steadily, at around 5 percent a year, for the past decade, reaching $1.6 trillion in 2008. Last year, Africa was one of just two regions (the other was Asia) where GDP rose.

Is all this good news sustainable? At the 2010 Fortune Global Forum, in Cape Town, South Africa, McKinsey Publishing’s Rik Kirkland spoke with Absa’s Maria Ramos, Coca-Cola’s Bill Egbe, and McKinsey’s Norbert Dörr to find the answer.

Watch the video, or download a PDF of the transcript.

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Video: Can Africa continue to grow?
A panel of regional business leaders discusses its prospects.
Recommend (70)
  • 11 NOVEMBER 2010
    Kwame Som-Pimpong
    Analyst Intern
    Governor's Office of Planning and Budget
    Atlanta, GA USA

    I am eager to see: 1. Multinationals in the US wake up and begin to leverage opportunities in African countries...

    .
    Kwame Som-Pimpong
    Analyst Intern
    Governor's Office of Planning and Budget
    Atlanta, GA USA

    I am eager to see:

    1. Multinationals in the US wake up and begin to leverage opportunities in African countries
    2. African companies invest in Africa
    3. Innovation take root in countries like Ghana that seem to have become content with being “stable”
    4. Small business in US and African countries forge relationships.

    .
  • 18 OCTOBER 2010
    Anthony Jongwe
    Principal Consultant
    Global Workforce Solutions (Pvt) Ltd
    Harare, Zimbabwe

    ...Africa is not poor because it does not have resources. It is poor because of a lack of clarity of purpose and determination to succeed whose roots are located in the inner psyche of its people—we always feel robbed, disposessed......

    .
    Anthony Jongwe
    Principal Consultant
    Global Workforce Solutions (Pvt) Ltd
    Harare, Zimbabwe

    Africa needs to take ownership of its rich resource base. Empowerment policies need to be crafted and implemented across all key sectors to ensure that Africans have majority control. Governments have a duty to improve the business environment to encourage FDI in joint ventures whose key focus is on value-addition. Improving the business environment entails crafting credible economic, social, and political policies that promote openness and accountability. Africa is not poor because it does not have resources. It is poor because of a lack of clarity of purpose and determination to succeed whose roots are located in the inner psyche of its people—we always feel robbed, disposessed, and violated by history and have failed to rise beyond this. This calls for a paradigm shift in the mindset and the emergence of new leadership models that can extricate the continent from this state of hostage. Africa is sure destined to play its role in the community of continents as a proud, rich, and equal partner.

    .
  • 24 SEPTEMBER 2010
    Anthony Karanja
    Supervisor
    Consumer Insight
    Nakuru Kenya

    Growth in Africa will be driven by heavy investments in infrastructure development, while at the same time ensuring that corruption is curtailed so as to boost FDI.

    .
    Anthony Karanja
    Supervisor
    Consumer Insight
    Nakuru Kenya

    Growth in Africa will be driven by heavy investments in infrastructure development, while at the same time ensuring that corruption is curtailed so as to boost FDI.

    .
  • 21 SEPTEMBER 2010
    Nathaniel Oghagbon
    CEO
    Nth Group Ltd
    UK

    ...Viable economic growth is underpinned by informal market participation....

    .
    Nathaniel Oghagbon
    CEO
    Nth Group Ltd
    UK

    Nothing except Africans—leaders and the people, alike—should stop Africa from sustaining growth dividends earned, thus far.

    Viable economic growth is underpinned by informal market participation. Vince Cable, UK Secretary of State For Business, was recently reported to have asserted that to ignore immigrants and the minority group (they form a majority part of the British informal sector) in the drive to kick-start the UK’s economy would be counter-productive. Other reports had him as staking his political career on this stand. This sort of position is required of Africans. Instead, the prevailing position in Africa is gross neglect of the informal sector.

    More than ever, now is time for African businesses and government to re-focus priorities and strategies to serve sustained growth.

    .
  • 11 SEPTEMBER 2010
    Chrispin Daka
    Director
    MKM consult ltd
    Lusaka, Zambia

    I agree with the Absa CEO. Africa can only sustain growth by looking inwards for investments. As Africans, let’s facilitate an investing culture and we will get there....

    .
    Chrispin Daka
    Director
    MKM consult ltd
    Lusaka, Zambia

    I agree with the Absa CEO. Africa can only sustain growth by looking inwards for investments. As Africans, let’s facilitate an investing culture and we will get there. We just need to understand how we can entice the African investor.

    .
  • 3 SEPTEMBER 2010
    Veselin Petkov
    Research Analyst
    SEERC
    Bulgaria

    ...African governments must find a way to tame corporate interests and insist that foreign investments don’t lead to social and environmental exploitation....

    .
    Veselin Petkov
    Research Analyst
    SEERC
    Bulgaria

    In order to achieve sustainable growth, African governments must find a way to tame corporate interests and insist that foreign investments don’t lead to social and environmental exploitation. With such natural resources, Africa should have a far higher living standard.

    .
  • 25 AUGUST 2010
    Ken A
    Manager
    Calgary, Canada

    Only less than 10% of the close to 50 countries in Africa are experiencing this growth. I think it is too early to talk about sustainable growth...

    .
    Ken A
    Manager
    Calgary, Canada

    Only less than 10% of the close to 50 countries in Africa are experiencing this growth. I think it is too early to talk about sustainable growth until the growth formula can be implemented in the remaining 90%. My point is: there are chances that as the economy deteriorates in the rest of Africa, it could wipe out the gains made by the growing 10%.

    .
  • 25 AUGUST 2010
    Richard Cunningham
    Owner
    Virunga Artisans
    Nkuringo, Uganda

    ...Africans must come to grips with the fact that they are responsible for their continent, their countries, their communities, their people....

    .
    Richard Cunningham
    Owner
    Virunga Artisans
    Nkuringo, Uganda

    Whatever positive changes have taken place have occurred in urban areas or areas of resource extraction. And even those changes have affected only a small minority of the population. In the rural areas, the outlook is bleak with increased incidences of insecurity, drought, famine and malnutrition. So many more of the rural poor are dependent on outside support for their daily subsistance today than ten years ago, due to unchecked population increases and the increasing effiency of NGOs. But there have been no permanent, positive changes.

    But this will soon change, due to the global economic recession and donor fatique. These resources will simply not be available in the months, years ahead. Africans must come to grips with the fact that they are responsible for their continent, their countries, their communities, their people. Look at the donations and investments that have been poured into Africa in the last century. Where has this gone? Who has benefited? It’s time for Africans to invest in themselves.

    The difficulties of Africa are its diversity and remoteness. With tribal and ethnic rivalries everywhere, it is hard to establish any cohesive development strategies to scale. Also, so many of these populations are in remote areas which makes continuity of communication, travel and logistics impossible. Subsequently, rural Africans will continue to ‘subsist’ at best, far from the World’s view with little hope of a brighter future.

    .
  • 25 AUGUST 2010
    James Stuart
    Global strategist
    Alt3
    London, UK

    ...You’re right, in the last two decades there has been a significant level of change. However, the scale and scope of change has not yet reached the critical level of being sustainable....

    .
    James Stuart
    Global strategist
    Alt3
    London, UK

    There is strong potential for the continued growth within and throughout Africa. You’re right, in the last two decades there has been a significant level of change. However, the scale and scope of change has not yet reached the critical level of being sustainable.

    For Africa, the key to future development and progression is sustainability. This is in terms of business, society, politics, and of course, environment.

    In the next three to five years, the world will begin to be faced with a series of fundamental shifts which will affect every country, every company, every consumer. Some of these shifts will be good, some not so good. Those areas of the world that will be in a position to progress and develop will be those areas with a sustainable infrastructure.

    For example, peak oil. When peak oil strikes (as it is starting to already) there will be a slow but sure undermining of economic sustainability as costs rise. This will first of all affect the most vulnerable regions of the world who do not have the financial resiliance or buffering available to others. Africa will be in the front line.

    However, the areas worst affected will be those countries who are virtually completely reliant on oil, such as the developed countries. This, therefore, is an opportunity to develop a type of energy independence that can fuel country and regional development and create sustainable advantage. The less developed regions of the world will be more able to do this than the developed regions. It is a matter of entrenched reliance.

    Therefore, in answer to your question, yes, Africa can continue to grow if it understands how the world is changing, and puts in place a series of investments to ensure it’s position in the economic evolution taking place. Many parts of Africa are well placed to become energy independent and reap the benefits of rising energy costs. This will be the fuel that powers their development. Without it there is little chance of progress.

    Of course, the above is only one example in which Africa can propel itself forward. The key here is visibility—visibility of the changes taking place and planning several steps ahead. Today in Africa there is the growing capability to do just that—and this is one of the more noteable changes of the last few decades—the capability to act and the willingness to achieve more.

    .
  • 25 AUGUST 2010
    Dean Genade
    Business consultant
    Sanlam
    Cape Town, Republic of South Africa

    ...when is the right time for us to start pursuing these strategies?...

    .
    Dean Genade
    Business consultant
    Sanlam
    Cape Town, Republic of South Africa

    Thought provoking. Amongst others, are we thinking enough about the opportunities in Africa and abroad for the markets we are trying to serve? And when is the right time for us to start pursuing these strategies? How do we systematically (with efficiency) address innovation in the organisation?

    .
  • 24 AUGUST 2010
    Francis Wood
    Managing Director
    JHX Management Ltd
    London, UK

    ...the hurdles to serving those consumers are so high that they are a disincentive to manufacturing and production on the ground. Until this yoke is broken, African businesses will be largely oriented toward trading...

    .
    Francis Wood
    Managing Director
    JHX Management Ltd
    London, UK

    Africa’s a big place and I consider SA outside of the ‘core Africa’ being discussed by your panel. SA is different in its various infrastructure and development from SSA as it is from North Africa and the desert states. Key drivers of development—including sources of finance, human resources, and access to markets—are hard to come by for local businesses in core Africa. The virtual absence, for example, of venture, private, and bank funding presents onerous hurdles and encourages ‘creative’ solutions that, among other things, invite corruption and and other negative effects.

    The fact is that, across Africa, the consumer has the same aspirations as people elsewhere but the hurdles to serving those consumers are so high that they are a disincentive to manufacturing and production on the ground. Until this yoke is broken, African businesses will be largely oriented toward trading, and African resources (e.g. the consumers, commodities, etcetera) will continue to be at the mercy of non-African businesses.

    .
  • 24 AUGUST 2010
    Dr. John Emale
    CEO
    JETIN & CO
    Arlington, TX USA

    Bill Egbe had a good point in stating that conglomerates must learn how to encourage and patronize SMEs in sourcing their raw materials...

    .
    Dr. John Emale
    CEO
    JETIN & CO
    Arlington, TX USA

    Bill Egbe had a good point in stating that conglomerates must learn how to encourage and patronize SMEs in sourcing their raw materials, that process normally leads to the creation of new jobs and opportunities in a nation’s economy. What we have now is major companies playing both the roles of SMEs and big companies combined, a system that does not help anyone.

    .
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