The McKinsey Quarterly

  • Recommend (23)
  • Text Size
  • Print
  • Download PDF
  • Link to This

Value creation in health care: A sector-by-sector analysis

Success is not just about top-line growth.

The US health care industry has outperformed the S&P 500 for two decades, creating more than $700 billion in shareholder value creation since 1985. This strong overall growth, however, does not mean the industry’s performance has been uniform across companies and subsectors.

To understand the industry’s performance at a more detailed level, we examined nearly 1,900 publicly traded health care companies from 1985 to 2007.1 At the core of our analysis is a detailed breakdown of each company’s total returns to shareholders (TRS). Not surprisingly, an analysis both of fundamental factors (sales growth, margin changes, and the capital needed to sustain growth) and of capital market factors (initial price-to-earnings ratios, changes in P/Es, and levels of dividend payouts) showed that over the long run, good performance drives TRS. Over shorter periods, however—and particularly over the past ten years—changes in expectations as measured by P/Es have outweighed the impact of growth in earnings themselves.

What follows is a narrated interactive chart pack that presents a snapshot of the industry, highlighting which sources of value to shareholders were strongest at different times over the past 22 years.

Notes

1For every year they were in the database; the database is dynamic, and not every company existed for the full 22 years of the analysis. To avoid the distorting effects of currency fluctuations, we further limited our analysis to include only those companies reporting performance in US dollars.

Listen to commentary and explore detailed total returns to shareholders (TRS) data from 1985 to 2007 for the health care industry overall, as well as the pharma, biotech, devices, distributors, payers, providers, and services sectors.

Value creation in health care: A sector-by-sector analysis
This narrated chart pack explores historical TRS trends in health care sectors.
Recommend (23)
  • 17 NOVEMBER 2008
    Brett Barndt
    LABQ/Indigo Group
    New York, United States

    It would be interesting to see chart lines about healthcare outcomes in the population using social science research information along the same period from 1985. To me, this is the missing part of the story. Share price and valuation don’t...

    .
    Brett Barndt
    LABQ/Indigo Group
    New York, United States

    It would be interesting to see chart lines about healthcare outcomes in the population using social science research information along the same period from 1985. To me, this is the missing part of the story. Share price and valuation don’t tell the full story without tying to benchmarks about healthcare outcomes, and these visual interactive charts would be a great way to bring that information to life.

    .
  • 17 NOVEMBER 2008
    George Moseley
    Faculty
    Harvard University
    Massachusetts, United States

    This chart begs the question of what proportion of each of these health care sub-industries is composed of for-profit companies. Of course companies in pharma, biotechnology, and medical devices are totally profit-driven. A substantial minority of health plans are not....

    .
    George Moseley
    Faculty
    Harvard University
    Massachusetts, United States

    This chart begs the question of what proportion of each of these health care sub-industries is composed of for-profit companies. Of course companies in pharma, biotechnology, and medical devices are totally profit-driven. A substantial minority of health plans are not. And the majority of hospitals are not-for-profit. Furthermore, what does the “provider” category encompass? Do physician practices—of any size—show up in there?

    .
    OUR REPLY
    MKQ_response

    Our study included only listed, for-profit companies; the financial statements of non-profits often do not reflect their economic performance in a way that is comparable to for-profit companies. The “provider” category encompasses hospitals and related patient care facilities.

    OUR REPLY
Submit Your Comments

The user information you enter into this form will not update your site profile. To update your profile, please visit your profile page.

Subject Value creation in health care: A sector-by-sector analysis

*Required

We may publish your comments online and in the print edition of McKinsey Quarterly. Those chosen, which may be edited for length and clarity, will appear along with your name and details, but not your e-mail address. We will use your e-mail address only to send you a confirmation copy of your comments and to notify you if we publish them online.

We value your feedback and will consider it carefully. Nonetheless, we receive so many comments that we cannot acknowledge all of them.

See also:
Preview

Embed E-mail