The McKinsey Quarterly

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Weighing the pros and cons of earnings guidance : A McKinsey Survey

Most companies plan to continue providing investors with frequent earnings guidance, though executives disagree about its costs and benefits.

A number of major companies, including Berkshire Hathaway, Citigroup, Ford Motor, and Google, have chosen not to issue frequent earnings guidance to investors. Nonetheless, the vast majority of executives responding to the latest McKinsey Quarterly survey1 whose companies issue guidance—some 83 percent of them—say that their companies have no current plans to alter their approach. Yet the executives disagree about the benefits and costs of issuing guidance, the greatest sources of pressure to provide it, and the possible effects of curtailing or discontinuing it.

The survey findings suggest that most executives continue to issue earnings guidance—the comments management provides about how a company will perform in the future—in the absence of any clear consensus on its contribution to company value and largely at the insistence of brokerage house analysts.2

Detailed responses to the survey appear on the following pages.

Notes

1The McKinsey Quarterly conducted the survey in January 2006 and received 124 responses from a worldwide representative sample of CFOs, CEOs, and board members of publicly held companies.

2The practice of issuing earnings guidance took root in the 1970s, when many companies began privately communicating their forecasts to large investors, and grew during the stock-market boom of the 1990s, when the US Congress protected companies from liability for their statements about projected performance. More recently, growth of the practice has slowed as some companies have ceased issuing guidance, citing among other factors the negative effect of forcing management into a short-term focus.

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